For the fourth straight year, and the eighth in nine seasons, a quarterback was taken first overall in the NFL Draft, with Fernando Mendoza going to the Las Vegas Raiders. The question for bettors now turns to the 2027 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds. Will a quarterback make it five in a row, or can Ohio State’s Jeremiah Smith buck the trend as the first wide receiver to go No. 1 since Keyshawn Johnson in 1996?
According to the sportsbook, here is where the market stands at FanDuel as of Oct. 8.
2027 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds
Jeremiah Smith: +230 (bet $10 to win $33 total)
Arch Manning: +420 (bet $10 to win $52 total)
CJ Carr: +420 (bet $10 to win $52 total)
Drew Mestemaker: +650 (bet $10 to win $75 total)
Darian Mensah: +800 (bet $10 to win $90 total)
Trinidad Chambliss: +950 (bet $10 to win $105 total)
Austin Simmons: +2000 (bet $10 to win $210 total)
Dante Moore: +2200 (bet $10 to win $230 total)
Here is what to know about the shifting board.
A wideout at No. 1?
Jeremiah Smith has moved into the top spot at +230 after another standout performance that bolstered his case as the nation’s most dominant player. Against Iowa, he logged 11 receptions for 206 yards and two touchdowns, completing the Ohio State triple crown as the program’s all-time leader in receptions, receiving yards and receiving touchdowns.
That effort followed his Week 4 showing against Illinois, where he set career highs with 12 catches, 217 yards and four touchdowns. He became the fourth Big Ten receiver since 2000 to post at least 200 receiving yards and four touchdown grabs in a game, and he tied Ohio State’s single-game receiving touchdown mark as the fifth Buckeye with four.
Smith has topped 150 receiving yards in four of five games this season, against Ball State (151), Texas (164), Illinois (217) and Iowa (206), matching the Buckeyes’ single-season record first set by David Boston in 1998. He is also the only FBS player this season with consecutive 200-yard receiving games, and just the second in Big Ten history to do so, joining Indiana’s Ty Fryfogle in 2020.
With production at that level, bookmakers see a realistic path for Smith to challenge entrenched quarterback precedent at the top of the board.
Man(ning) of the hour
The Manning draft lineage is well established, and Arch Manning remains a leading contender to be the first name called. He took over as Texas’ starter last season, completing 61.4% of his passes for 3,163 yards, 26 touchdowns and seven interceptions. After five interceptions in the Longhorns’ first five games, he settled in with only two picks over the final eight, adding 15 touchdown passes as Texas went 7-1. He threw for 221 yards and two touchdowns in a bowl win over Michigan.
This season through four games, Manning has 862 passing yards and seven touchdowns with a 63.5% completion rate. He has guided Texas to two signature victories so far, a comeback win over Ohio State in Week 2 and a convincing road result at Tennessee in Week 4.
With major conference tests ahead and the potential for a deep postseason run, Manning will have ample opportunity to influence his stock and reshape the college football 2027 NFL Draft No. 1 pick odds in the weeks to come.