Goldman Sachs oil forecast suggests crude could climb to $120 per barrel if assaults on Middle East shipping persist, the bank said, highlighting rising risks around the Strait of Hormuz.
Such a move would mark the highest oil prices since late February, when the United States and Israel began military operations against Iran. Brent crude, the global benchmark, last peaked at about $114 on 4 May.
“Events over the last few days do suggest that the risk of shipping disruptions broadening and intensifying is an important one,” said Daan Struyven, co-head of global commodities research at the firm, in remarks to Bloomberg TV on Monday.
Goldman Sachs oil forecast amid Hormuz tensions
Washington and Tehran have not resolved a standoff over oversight of the Strait of Hormuz, a key chokepoint that in peacetime carried roughly one fifth of the world’s oil.
Tehran said Monday it plans to unveil new sanctions targeting vessels attempting to transit the strait after a weekend of renewed exchanges with the United States, dimming hopes for de-escalation. Mohsen Rezaei, secretary of Iran’s Supreme National Security Council, told state television on Sunday that an exclusion zone outside the waterway will be announced in the coming days.
He said any ship entering the new restricted area would be added to a sanctions list, reiterating that the channel would fully reopen only once the United States “stop the sabotage, threats and attacks on Iran.”
The United States and Iran exchanged fire again over the weekend. Brent futures have pushed above $97 per barrel, and vessel movements through Hormuz have fallen to their lowest level since May.
Goldman Sachs said there is “meaningful upside to crude oil prices.” The bank added that for gas and refined fuels, the “supply shocks are bigger than in the crude market.” Rallying Brent prices could top $100 per barrel for the first time since 23 July, which has been the only day above that threshold since 22 May.
Shipping attacks and transit slowdown
Attacks on shipping near the Strait of Hormuz appear to be intensifying. The United States said it carried out strikes on three Iranian oil tankers, including one near Kharg Island, after Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps fired ballistic missiles at two American naval vessels.
On average, ten commodity ships passed through the Strait of Hormuz each day over the last ten days, the lowest rate since May, according to shipping data on Monday following US and Iranian strikes on tankers. Analytics firm Kpler reported the 10-day moving average was 10 on Sunday, down from more than 15 on Friday and nearly 13 on Saturday.
The latest tensions follow earlier incidents in the region, including Trump’s AI fakery in Iran conflict fuels credibility concerns, which raised questions about information reliability during crises.