Brazil’s presidential race will proceed to a Bolsonaro and Lula runoff after neither candidate won an outright majority in Sunday’s first round, according to the electoral court.
With more than 99% of ballots tallied, Senator Flavio Bolsonaro held 47.2% and President Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva had 45%, the court reported. Officials said the two will face off in a second round on October 25.
Lula called the results “unexpected,” saying he believed he would win in the first round. “We are in extra time. In extra time, we will win over the Brazilian people,” the 80-year-old said.
Flavio Bolsonaro voiced confidence heading into the runoff, saying Brazil could choose a “modern government” in three weeks. The senator monitored the count in Brasilia, while Lula followed results from Sao Paulo. Brazil’s electronic voting system is expected to deliver final figures within hours of polls closing.
Bolsonaro and Lula runoff
Analysts say the right is gaining ground in Brazil, complicating Lula’s path. Fabio de Sa e Silva, a professor of Brazilian studies at the University of Oklahoma, said the momentum currently favors the right. He added that a stronger far-right presence in Congress would make governing difficult for Lula even if he wins another term.
Lula vows to ‘defeat the far right’
Both candidates ended their campaigns Saturday in Sao Paulo. Lula toured the city, pledging to “defeat the far right.” Organizers estimated about 150,000 supporters attended his rally.
He has campaigned on the Workers’ Party platform of social welfare programs, state-led development and income redistribution. Casting his ballot, Lula framed the choice as one between “strengthening the democratic regime” and “barbarism.”
Bolsonaro calls for ‘change’
Flavio Bolsonaro, 45, a Liberal Party senator for Rio de Janeiro since 2019, staged a motorcycle parade through Santa Barbara d’Oeste and Americana on Saturday. He displayed a portrait of his father, former President Jair Bolsonaro, as supporters chanted “mito,” or “legend.”
The right-wing candidate has emphasized hardline security measures and tax cuts, criticizing high living costs under Lula and calling the president “incompetent.” “Brazil needs change,” he said after voting, citing concerns ranging from taxes to violence against women.
Brazil’s 2022 election rematch
Jair Bolsonaro is serving a 27-year prison sentence for attempting a coup to overturn his 2022 loss to Lula, and Flavio Bolsonaro has said he would grant a pardon if elected. Lula’s team has portrayed the Bolsonaro movement as a threat to sovereignty, highlighting the Bolsonaros’ ties to former U.S. President Donald Trump, who last year imposed a 50% tariff on Brazilian imports in response to Jair Bolsonaro’s coup trial and called the case a “witch hunt.”
Flavio Bolsonaro has described himself as more moderate than his father, while calling Jair his “compass” and “point of reference.” Both have backed looser gun controls and expressed skepticism about human-caused climate change. Trump has not endorsed the senator but has said he is watching the election closely.
What happens next?
The campaign has unfolded amid deep polarization, with both sides rapidly amplifying gaffes, accusations and rumors online, including through slick videos and AI-generated imagery. In September, authorities disclosed that Flavio Bolsonaro is under investigation for alleged corruption, money laundering and tax evasion related to financing a biopic about his father. He has denied wrongdoing.
Polling by Brazilian research firm Quaest ahead of the first round showed Lula at 46% and Flavio Bolsonaro at 45%, according to figures cited by a news agency. In a head-to-head scenario, Quaest measured Lula at 42% and Bolsonaro at 44%.
Lula defeated Jair Bolsonaro by 1.8 percentage points in 2022, a result that some observers have compared to other tightly fought races such as the Burnham Labour conference speech: UK on ‘wrong path’ debate in Britain. Beyond the presidency, Brazil’s roughly 160 million registered voters are also selecting lawmakers, governors and some senators.