The Russian diesel deal announced by President Donald Trump is unlikely to meaningfully lower fuel costs in the coming months, energy analysts said.
Trump on Friday said he reached an agreement with Russian president Vladimir Putin to increase Russian diesel supplies to the United States and global markets, arguing the move would help bring down prices. He said Russia would immediately ship more than 300,000 tonnes of diesel, with additional cargoes expected in November and beyond. His administration also temporarily relaxed sanctions on Russian fuel, reversing a policy designed to curb Moscow’s revenues tied to its war in Ukraine.
Russian diesel deal draws skepticism
The White House also announced a unilateral decision to lift certain sanctions to enable Moscow to supply diesel to the U.S. and abroad. Trump has sought to reduce diesel prices, which have climbed in recent months amid Russian and Ukrainian strikes on energy infrastructure and ongoing U.S. hostilities with Iran.
The national average price for a gallon of diesel in the United States hit a record $6.53 on 22 September, according to motor club AAA. The average stood at nearly $6.28 on Friday, up from almost $3.68 a year earlier. European diesel benchmarks have also reached record levels.
Higher diesel costs ripple through the economy by raising transportation expenses for freight, delivery and a wide range of consumer goods.
In the United Kingdom, Defence Secretary Wes Streeting advised households to keep small reserves of cash, bottled water and tinned food for emergencies or war. He cited growing risks from fires, floods and hostile activity, including cyberattacks, and called for a “whole society approach” to strengthen national resilience while urging the public to remain “alert not alarmed.”
Policy experts questioned whether the Russian diesel deal would deliver price relief. Michael Lynch, a fellow at the Energy Policy Research Foundation, likened the move to “shuffling deck chairs on the Titanic,” arguing that if the U.S. imports more diesel from Russia, Russia’s current customers will seek supplies elsewhere, leaving overall prices largely unchanged. He said the best outcome could be a modest, local dip in markets such as the New York–New Jersey area and Philadelphia.
Gregory Brew, an analyst with Eurasia Group’s Energy, Climate and Resources team, called the agreement “a band-aid, nothing more.”
Ukrainian president Volodymyr Zelensky, responding to reports of the arrangement, told Axios the deal is “not fair and not honest,” adding that it “looks like a happy birthday present for Putin,” referring to the Russian leader’s birthday on Wednesday.
Earlier this year, U.S. officials had also weighed a diesel export ban as Europe was urged to tap reserves, highlighting ongoing concerns about fuel supplies and prices.