Corn drops after USDA surprise, with futures retreating as the market absorbed higher-than-expected U.S. production, yield, and ending stocks. Soybeans advanced on fund and technical buying, while wheat eased on larger U.S. inventories.
Corn drops after USDA surprise
Corn futures weakened on fund and technical selling, locking in a weekly loss. Government estimates for corn production and yield topped expectations, and ending stocks also exceeded forecasts. The larger carryout had been partly anticipated following the recent Quarterly Grain Stocks report, but the latest figures surpassed what most analysts projected.
In the monthly supply and demand update, ending stocks were lifted by bigger beginning stocks and a higher production outlook. These increases more than offset stronger projections for domestic use across all sectors and for exports. Traders are tracking harvest results and reports of quality issues in some areas, which could prompt revisions to expectations later. Global changes were limited, with more adjustments likely as planting advances in Argentina and Brazil. Brazil’s CONAB is scheduled to issue its next crop assessment on the 15th, and the next supply and demand report is due November 10.
Soybeans firm on meal strength
Soybean futures closed higher on fund and technical buying, extending what was already a weekly gain. U.S. production, yield, and ending stocks were raised month over month and came in above pre-report estimates. The record production and yield figures could still be revised as harvest progresses. Markets are refocusing on fieldwork, with delays expected in the coming week.
Weekly crop progress and condition data will be released Tuesday due to the federal holiday, while commodity markets will maintain normal trading hours. Export projections were increased on improved demand from China, while broader global adjustments were limited.
Soybean meal led the soy complex on demand expectations, with soybean oil following. Soybean meal ending stocks were unchanged as higher domestic consumption offset a larger export outlook. Soybean oil ending stocks declined after a cut to beginning stocks, counterbalancing higher imports.
Wheat softens on higher U.S. stocks
Wheat futures fell on fund and technical selling, cementing a lower weekly finish. U.S. ending stocks rose from last month on a slight increase in production and a reduction in exports. Export projections for Russia were trimmed due to the Black Sea slowdown, while outlooks for Argentina and Canada were raised.
Overall global exports were reduced on cuts to the United States and Russia, with no change yet for Ukraine. That points to stronger domestic use and a tighter world carryout by the end of the 2026/27 marketing year, even if not fully reflected in this update. Production was revised higher for Canada, lower for the European Union, and left unchanged for Australia and Argentina ahead of harvest.
For more on how crop disease risks can shape yield expectations, see Resurrect Bio AI platform targets crop disease defenses. Traders also remain alert to potential shifts in global supply chains, including developments in the United Nations-brokered corridors and other Black Sea agreements.