The grain markets faced selling pressure this week as harvest progress accelerated across much of the Upper Midwest, according to market analysts discussing Friday’s close on Oct. 23.
Randy Martinson, president of Martinson Ag Risk Management, reviewed the week’s volatility during an interview with Jamie Dickerman of the Red River Farm Network. He said multiple forces were at play, including geopolitical headlines and robust field activity.
Harvest progress and wheat
Wheat futures pushed lower, which Martinson linked in part to talk of a potential peace arrangement between Russia and Ukraine, even though fighting has continued. He noted that any resumption of Ukrainian exports would not likely improve the backdrop for U.S. wheat shipments.
Harvest progress and corn
For corn, strong harvest progress remained the primary headwind for prices. Martinson added that the possibility of Ukraine reentering the export market with corn sales is another source of uncertainty.
Harvest progress and soybeans
Soybeans found support after seven consecutive days of buying from China, which Martinson said leaves that market in a comparatively better position.
Yield outlook and USDA expectations
Dickerman noted steady field reports and asked whether higher-than-expected yields would hold. Martinson said conditions vary widely and suggested it may be difficult to draw firm conclusions now.
He expects the U.S. Department of Agriculture to trim corn yield estimates, saying the October report may have been too optimistic, though he does not anticipate changes until December. For soybeans, he said growers are generally pleased with yields and he does not expect significant adjustments to soybean estimates.
“Demand continues to be extremely strong,” Martinson said, adding that firm crude oil prices are helping underpin the biofuels sector, which supports soybean demand.
Marketing moves during harvest progress
With many producers bringing in large crops, Martinson said a lot of soybeans are moving into on-farm storage, which he described as a reasonable strategy given attractive bids for December through February delivery. Corn is arriving at low moisture in many areas, and a significant share is heading straight to country elevators.
Cattle market and placements
Cattle futures posted solid gains during the week. Martinson cited strong demand and a smaller herd as the foundation for recent strength, while noting prices could soften seasonally as fall calves reach market.
He said the Cattle on Feed report due later Friday would likely be supportive if placements come in lower as expected.
Weather, South America and El Niño
Looking ahead, Martinson said harvest progress will remain the market’s main driver. Forecast rains in Minnesota, Iowa and Nebraska could delay fieldwork.
He also pointed to planting in South America, where Brazil and Argentina are moving at one of the fastest paces on record. He cautioned that an El Niño pattern could bring extended dry weather, leaving early-seeded crops vulnerable if heat intensifies later in the season.
He noted that strong demand tied to renewable fuels continues to influence corn markets, echoing themes seen in North Dakota corn harvest shows gains as biofuels reshape rural economies. Market participants are also watching how global weather patterns and South American production could affect the balance sheets in coming months.
Analysts continue to monitor developments in Ukraine and Black Sea shipping, as any shifts could affect global grain flows. Traders are also following updates from CME Group for futures market movements and contract volumes as harvest advances.