An agricultural economist says corn could be a leading indicator of movement on the China $17 billion ag purchase commitment covering non-soybean farm goods.
Ben Brown of University of Missouri Extension said China has stepped up corn buying in recent weeks due to production setbacks, and only a small group of commodities could realistically make up a large share of the pledged purchases.
“There are really three historical categories: corn, beef and cattle products, and cotton,” Brown said. “Those account for about two-thirds of shipments. We do not have enough beef products available to reach the $17 billion total. Cotton is uncertain. China is a major cotton buyer and we would like to export more, but drought in the southern United States will likely cap exports. If you remove those, along with pork and soybeans by definition, corn and corn products are what remain.”
Corn’s role in China $17 billion ag purchase
Details discussed at a meeting last week included a proposed “30-for-30” trade framework that would identify roughly 30 billion dollars in goods from the United States and China for potentially more favorable tariff treatment. According to Brown, the U.S. list features several agricultural items, including corn, beef and cotton.
“I think that may be an early signal tied to the $17 billion in non-soybean commitments. We will see,” he said. “China still has not purchased many non-soybean agricultural products from us. Some, but not much, and not enough to meet the $17 billion target.”
Brown said he does not expect significant additional progress as trade talks continue through the end of the year.
Brown of University of Missouri Extension has closely followed trade negotiations and commodity responses, especially in the corn market.
Production challenges and drought in the southern United States have also affected other crops tied to the commitment, including cotton and beef, alongside potential impacts on harvest timing similar to those described by a USDA climatologist.
The broader agricultural sector, from traditional grains to emerging technologies and inputs for agrifood investment, will be watching how the China commitments evolve in the months ahead.