Eritrean troops in Ethiopia have been confirmed by multiple sources, with a foreign security official estimating that between 5,000 and 8,000 Eritrean soldiers are present in Tigray. At the same time, officials in Addis Ababa and Asmara are sharpening their rhetoric.
According to officials, Ethiopia has asked the UN Security Council to demand the immediate withdrawal of Eritrean forces from its territory. In an Oct. 8 letter, Foreign Minister Gedion Timothewos said Eritrea’s deployment left Ethiopia with no option but to defend itself.
Eritrea’s Minister of Information, Yemane Meskel, posted on X on Oct. 7 accusing Ethiopia of beating the drums of war. Writing in Tigrinya on Oct. 9, he warned, “Woe to those who touch” Eritrea, which he described as bound by blood and law.
The exchange comes as the conflict is seen to be deteriorating quickly. Some analysts say Ethiopia may have provoked the latest escalation. Last week, Ethiopia expelled Eritrean and Egyptian diplomats, and Eritrea subsequently cut diplomatic ties.
On Monday, during his swearing-in for another five-year term, Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed said gaining access to the sea was a priority. The comment renewed speculation that he could seek to seize Eritrea’s port of Assab by force, prompting sharp responses from Asmara.
Eritrean troops in Ethiopia and shifting internal dynamics
While the Ethiopian National Defence Forces, backed by the Tigray Peace Force militia, have made gains and retaken Mekelle, opposition groups have pursued new forms of cooperation.
One such initiative is known as Tsimdo, a Tigrinya term loosely translating to engagement. A senior East Africa analyst with the US-based conflict monitor ACLED said the concept first emerged through cross-border peace efforts among activists, religious leaders, and communities along the Tigray-Eritrea frontier in 2025.
The approach has since evolved and now encompasses diverse Ethiopian groups, often organized along ethnic lines and united by long-standing grievances against the federal government.
From this movement, the Ethiopian Peoples’ Forces Alliance for Survival, or Alliance for Survival, was announced in September. According to ACLED, the alliance seeks to remove the current government and launch a constitutional dialogue.
The coalition reflects Ethiopia’s unresolved conflicts, according to an analyst at the Horn of Africa Centre for Regional Integration. He said fighting inside Ethiopia never truly ceased. He cited decades of conflict with the Oromo Liberation Army, three years of confrontation with Amhara groups, and a relapse into hostilities with Tigrayan forces after the Pretoria agreement failed to address root causes.
Despite comprising seven groups, ACLED data indicates only three have fought recently: the Tigrayan Defence Forces, the Amhara Fano National Movement, and a newer Afar formation known as Ugugumo.
Regional alignments and a joint declaration
ACLED assesses that the Alliance for Survival’s prospects will hinge on support from external actors. Potential backers include neighboring Sudan, Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia.
Analysts note each of these states has disputes with Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s government. Egypt has long-standing concerns over Nile water management and existing or planned dams. Sudanese officials accuse Ethiopia of supporting the Rapid Support Forces militia, which is fighting Sudan’s army.
Somalia remains at odds with Ethiopia over sea access. Landlocked Ethiopia negotiated use of the port of Berbera in Somaliland and in 2024 signed a memorandum of understanding with the breakaway region. Mogadishu views the deal as an infringement of its sovereignty, and Turkish mediation was required to ease tensions.
On Oct. 4, the leaders of Sudan, Egypt, Eritrea, and Somalia issued a joint declaration that did not name Ethiopia but emphasized adherence to international law, including respect for sovereignty, independence, and territorial integrity in the region. The statement also asserted that governance of the Red Sea is the exclusive responsibility of coastal states.
Although the four leaders pledged to pursue peaceful solutions to conflicts, the worsening situation on the ground could challenge those assurances. Regional tensions have also been evident in incidents involving military cooperation and air operations beyond the Horn of Africa.