Gallup party identification shows a widening advantage for Democrats as both parties prepare for the midterm elections, with a double-digit gap emerging between voters who align with Democrats and those who align with Republicans.
According to a new Gallup poll, 50 percent of Americans now identify as Democrats or say they lean Democratic, compared with 39 percent who identify as Republicans or lean Republican in the third quarter of 2026. The 11-point margin is the largest quarterly advantage for Democrats since early 2009, when Barack Obama entered the White House after flipping nine states, according to a post from poll aggregator Interactive Polls.
Historically, the party holding the presidency tends to lose congressional seats in the midterms. However, recent surveys suggest Democrats are gaining ground in several Senate contests in Republican-leaning states just weeks before voting begins. The trend signals Republicans may have to expend more resources to defend typically safe seats.
Gallup party identification and key Senate battlegrounds
In Texas, Democrat James Talarico leads Republican Ken Paxton 51 percent to 45 percent, according to New York Times/Siena College polling released Monday. In Alaska, Democrat Mary Peltola holds a 50 percent to 43 percent advantage over Republican Dan Sullivan, and in Ohio, Democrat Sherrod Brown is ahead of Republican Jon Husted 49 percent to 46 percent, the polls show.
Close races are also emerging in Iowa and Kansas. In Iowa, Republican Ashley Hinson leads Democrat Josh Turek 48 percent to 47 percent. In Kansas, Democrat Adam Hamilton and Republican Roger Marshall are tied at 45 percent apiece, according to the same polling.
The polling represents a notable shift from the political landscape following the 2024 election, when Donald Trump defeated then–Vice President Kamala Harris and touted what he called an “unprecedented and powerful” mandate as Democrats assessed their losses.
Trump had outpolled Harris on top voter concerns such as immigration and the economy. Nearly two years into his second term, his approval rating has fallen to record lows amid public discontent with a costly and unpopular war in Iran and criticism of the administration’s aggressive deportation campaign, according to recent surveys and public statements.
The president has proposed a $5,000 “Trump Dividend” for Americans if voters help Republicans retain control of Congress, a pledge he unveiled during a two-day convention in Dallas aimed at boosting GOP candidates. Opponents have accused the plan of resembling bribery. On Sunday, Trump wrote on Truth Social that “The Polls have ALWAYS underestimated MAGA.”
Similar debates over political mandates and the direction of national policy have surfaced abroad, including in the wake of Brazil’s closely watched presidential race between Jair Bolsonaro and Luiz Inácio Lula da Silva, which culminated in a runoff after a tight first-round vote, as reported in Bolsonaro and Lula runoff set after tight first-round vote.