BROOKINGS, S.D. — Hog producers are contending with a difficult market as demand slips and prices weaken, according to industry analysts.
“Currently, today, the demand side is pretty bleak. We’ve seen quite a bit less consumer buying,” said Jordan Reker, risk manager for Professional Ag Marketing.
Reker said hog production has fallen 3% to 3.5% over the past eight weeks. Looking ahead, he noted the latest hog and pig report points to a decline of about 1% to 1.5%, adding that prices remain well below recent highs because of softer demand.
With demand easing, revenues are under pressure while input costs continue to climb. Reker said many hog producers are roughly at breakeven but trending toward losses.
“Margins went from being significantly green, you’re talking about making over $20 to $25 a head, to now losing $10 to $12 is what we are looking for the next 12 months moving forward,” he said.
As more operations face negative margins, the structure of the hog sector in the Midwest could shift further.
Reker said the sow herd has contracted over the last couple of years, which had supported a stronger outlook for 2024 and 2025. If margins stay negative, he expects additional herd reductions. “These margins moving back into the red area will probably cause a few more sows to kind of leave this industry,” he said.
Hog producers feel pressure from exports and poultry
Reker attributed much of the demand decline to weaker exports in recent months. He said exports have accounted for about 21% of production recently, compared to roughly 22% to 23% for most of 2025, leaving more pork on the domestic market.
He said exports have accounted for about 21% of production recently, compared to roughly 22% to 23% for most of 2025, leaving more pork on the domestic market.
Increased poultry availability is also weighing on pork demand. “There is quite a bit of poultry around,” he said, noting retail chicken prices are only about 75 cents higher than pork now, compared to about $1.50 higher a year ago. “So, cheap chicken is hurting pork today.”
To improve margins, Reker said export volumes need to strengthen and the belly market would need to move higher. A pullback in chicken supplies could also help.
“We have heard of some barns being empty on the poultry side, so that should help take some of this chicken off the market and make pork a little bit more consumer friendly,” he said.
Looking further out, he noted summer 2027 hog prices are around $90. If prices reach $95 to $96, he advises producers to consider locking in.