Houthi strikes are heightening fears that Yemen could slide back into a large-scale war. On Monday, Yemen’s Iran-aligned Houthi movement hit another crude oil tanker in the Red Sea off Saudi Arabia’s coast, following earlier attacks on Saudi oil facilities and vessels transiting the Bab el-Mandeb Strait.
The Bab el-Mandeb connects the Red Sea with the Gulf of Aden and has become a vital alternative export corridor for Saudi Arabia and other Gulf producers amid Iran’s continuing restrictions on the Strait of Hormuz.
In August, the Houthis also shelled areas held by the Saudi-backed Yemeni government, notably the port city of Mokha. Yemen’s internationally recognized government responded with strikes on Houthi targets.
Hisham Al-Omeisy, a Yemeni conflict analyst, said Mokha’s position on the Red Sea and near Bab el-Mandeb gives it strategic value for the Houthis. He argued the group seeks to erode government control along the coast and ultimately dominate Al-Hudaydah governorate to increase leverage over global maritime trade.
The latest escalation has punctured roughly four years of relative quiet between the Houthis and the Saudi-backed government.
Al-Omeisy pointed to two additional dynamics shaping Houthi actions. Despite the 2022 ceasefire, Saudi Arabia has continued to fund and arm the Yemeni government and has not fully lifted air and port restrictions on Houthi-held areas.
Even so, the Houthis have entrenched their role as Yemen’s de facto authorities and now appear to be seeking further concessions from Riyadh. He added that the Houthis face domestic pressure to deliver on promises such as government reform, salary payments and improved living conditions.
By invoking a broader regional conflict, he said, the group may be deflecting from unmet commitments. He also said the timing reflects lessons drawn from Iran’s approach to the Strait of Hormuz, noting that disrupted imports and oil exports leave Saudi Arabia exposed.
The United Nations has repeatedly warned that any renewed escalation could undermine fragile diplomatic efforts and worsen civilian suffering across Yemen.
Saudi Arabia’s response to Houthi strikes
Alice Gower, director of geopolitics and security at the consulting firm Azure Strategy, said instability in Yemen has become a wider regional security concern for Saudi Arabia. Riyadh wants a safer Red Sea, she said, but aims to achieve that without being pulled into another Yemeni war.
Protecting the Vision 2030 economic agenda has become a top priority, Gower said. She noted Saudi officials increasingly view the Red Sea as a single strategic theater that spans crises in Yemen, Sudan and the Horn of Africa, with Houthi activity threatening shipping, pushing up insurance costs, discouraging investment and disrupting infrastructure linked to the plan.
Gower said Saudi Arabia has adjusted its defense posture, focusing on a broader security framework to share the burden of safeguarding maritime routes. In July, Riyadh led the formation of a multinational Maritime Defense Alliance with more than 14 countries, including the United States.
She said the coalition is meant to distribute security responsibilities, bolster deterrence and counter threats across Bab el-Mandeb, the Red Sea and the Gulf of Aden, though its effectiveness remains to be demonstrated.
In August, Saudi Arabia also joined the Mecca Joint Defence Agreement with Pakistan and Turkey. Analysts have cautioned that the pact has yet to show operational impact.
Mohammed al-Basha, founder of the Basha Report risk advisory firm, argued in a recent interview that such groupings may not prevent Saudi Arabia from being drawn back into the Yemeni conflict.
He suggested Riyadh could either offer significant economic concessions to the Houthis in hopes of moderating their stance, or channel comparable resources to anti-Houthi Yemeni factions to press the group toward negotiations.
Humanitarian outlook hinges on a viable peace path
For Yemenis, renewed confrontation offers little prospect of relief. The United Nations continues to describe Yemen as one of the world’s worst humanitarian crises after years of fighting from 2014 to 2022, with more than half the population needing assistance.
UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk urged all parties to stop actions that could return the country to full-scale conflict.
Niku Jafarnia, a Yemen researcher at Human Rights Watch, said conditions are already dire and warned that any renewed fighting between the Houthis and the Saudi-led coalition would exacerbate the situation.
The question now is whether diplomacy can contain the latest escalation. Yemeni Nobel Peace Prize laureate Tawakkol Karman told representatives of UN Security Council member states that serious peacemaking must address the state’s collapse and institutional erosion.
She said the outcomes of the National Dialogue, reached by consensus among Yemeni actors including the Houthis under UN sponsorship and endorsed by the Security Council, remain the most practical roadmap to end the crisis. Similar concerns about global instability and shifting power balances have surfaced in debates over a multipolar world, highlighting the broader geopolitical stakes of regional conflicts.