The Iran power struggle is sharpening as hardline lawmakers move to unseat Foreign Minister Abbas Araghchi and Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad’s resignation fails to relieve pressure on President Masoud Pezeshkian’s administration.
With the war grinding on and diplomacy yielding little progress, political tensions are centering on Pezeshkian’s government. Conservative lawmakers are driving efforts to impeach Araghchi, spurred by his talks with U.S. negotiators on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly in New York, which critics claim took place without authorization.
Tehran legislator Amirhossein Sabeti notified parliamentary speaker Mohammad-Bagher Ghalibaf in a letter that he had filed an impeachment motion for Araghchi on the chamber’s online portal. Lawmaker Hossein-Ali Haji-Deligani also said the parliament could invoke its oversight authorities, including impeachment.
Iran power struggle rooted in the system
Political analyst Ali Afshari, who lives in the United States, said that when the leadership is compelled to negotiate, including with the United States, responsibility is shifted to elected institutions and moderates. He argued that hardliners then use those negotiations to target moderate factions over decisions previously coordinated within the power structure.
Afshari added that hardliners play a defined role in shaping public opinion, mobilizing traditional supporters and defending the Islamic Republic’s core values at home and abroad. He said the Foreign Ministry implements policy rather than sets it, and that Araghchi is operating within that mandate. Any impeachment drive must first garner a required number of parliamentary signatures.
The lucrative business of oil
The timing is notable as Iran faces acute economic strain. Oil exports, a vital source of income, have declined sharply amid the U.S. blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, intensifying fiscal pressure. Paknejad’s departure, officially for personal reasons, has added to the uncertainty.
Energy strategist Umud Shokri questioned whether changing the oil minister would alter fundamentals. He said Iran relies on networks that move crude in spite of sanctions, with opaque structures now entrenched and complicating government control over key revenues. He described sanctions evasion as a profitable enterprise for certain factions.
Shokri said that, by law, these earnings should be under state supervision, but that has not been the case for years. He noted that economic opacity has deepened during sanctions, justified by appeals to national security and public protection.
According to Shokri, private actors tied to centers of power, especially the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps, have developed channels to sell oil to the armed forces outside public view. Prices, commissions and total sums are not transparent, and the government’s sway is limited, with the Revolutionary Guards arranging and overseeing such transactions.
Analysts warn that both the political and economic climate could worsen in the coming days and weeks. Related concerns over regional escalation were highlighted in earlier coverage of how the Trump won’t strike Iran before November midterms, he says.
This article was originally published in German.