MLB best home run bets remain a long-shot market, and recent results reflect the volatility. Two losing picks on Wednesday moved the tally to 18-61 with three passes this season. Even so, staking $100 on each recommended prop at the cited prices would have produced a profit of $1,061 to date. That cushion can help weather the inevitable cold spells that come with swinging for plus-money outcomes.
Selecting the right matchups remains key. Tonight’s board features two power-hitting first basemen in advantageous spots, each priced at enticing odds.
MLB best home run bets
Jake Bauers (Milwaukee Brewers – 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+364) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Jake Bauers is in the midst of a breakout at age 30, already setting a personal best with 18 home runs through 93 games and 367 plate appearances in 2026. The left-handed hitter has produced 15 of those homers in 275 plate appearances against right-handed pitching, 10 in 159 at home, and nine in 139 when facing right-handers at home.
Underlying contact quality supports the surge. Among 255 qualified hitters this season, Bauers ranks tied for 49th in barrels per plate appearance rate at 7.9 percent and tied for 34th in barrels per batted-ball event at 13.5 percent. He is 13th in hard-hit rate at 53.0 percent, tied for 30th in combined fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity at 96.2 mph, and 20th in maximum exit velocity at 114.8 mph. He owns an 11.6-degree launch angle, with a 19.5 percent line-drive rate, 38.1 percent fly-ball rate, 22.0 percent HR/FB, and a 42.3 percent pull rate.
Friday’s matchup is favorable. Tomoyuki Sugano has allowed 1.79 home runs per nine innings this season, the fourth-highest mark among the day’s listed starters. He has surrendered 18 homers in 17 starts, giving up multiple in each of his last two outings and at least one in five straight. The 36-year-old right-hander has yielded 12 home runs to 196 left-handed batters and 11 in 203 plate appearances on the road. Bauers profiles well to capitalize at +364.
Bryce Eldridge (San Francisco Giants – 1B)
Over 0.5 Home Runs (+484) at DraftKings Sportsbook
Bryce Eldridge has found his footing after an early adjustment period with San Francisco. He hit five homers in his first 30 games and 137 plate appearances this year, then added 10 more over his next 60 games and 243 plate appearances. The 21-year-old has eight home runs in 185 plate appearances against right-handers, five in 108 at Oracle Park, and four in 78 when facing righties at home.
Eldridge’s raw power shows up in the metrics. Among 255 qualified hitters, he is tied for 53rd in barrels per plate appearance at 7.8 percent and tied for 41st in barrels per batted-ball event at 12.8 percent. He ranks seventh in hard-hit rate at 55.0 percent, tied for 15th in combined fly-ball and line-drive exit velocity at 97.1 mph, and 43rd in maximum exit velocity at 113.4 mph. He carries a 14.2-degree launch angle, with a 24.8 percent line-drive rate, 37.6 percent fly-ball rate, 17.9 percent HR/FB, and a 43.0 percent pull rate.
The matchup points to opportunity against Grayson Rodriguez, who has a 1.29 HR/9 and a 16.1 percent strikeout rate over eight starts this season. He has allowed a 31.7 percent line-drive rate, a 38.3 percent fly-ball rate, and a 10.9 percent HR/FB. With fewer missed bats on the table, Eldridge’s power can play at +484.
Even so, staking $100 on each recommended prop at the cited prices would have produced a profit of $1,061 to date, a performance that stands out in a betting landscape where investment gains can be equally volatile.