The Senate farm bill faces long odds in the lame-duck session, even after the Congressional Budget Office put its 10-year net cost at $4.4 billion late Wednesday. The Senate farm bill remains entangled in disputes over nutrition spending and timing that could derail efforts to enact a permanent package.
Senate farm bill cost and SNAP dispute
The CBO estimated the Supplemental Nutrition Assistance Program would average $1.1 billion in annual costs under the proposal. The bill would pause a state cost-share mandate for 12 months, a change that would reduce state expenditures by $5.2 billion.
Democratic members had pushed for a two-year delay, a sticking point that fractured the traditionally bipartisan Senate Agriculture Committee. Sen. Tina Smith of Minnesota said the longstanding linkage between food assistance and farm policy could still deliver the votes needed.
“We’ve got to figure out a way of putting that back together,” Smith said, adding that reductions to nutrition programs affect rural counties as much or more than urban and suburban areas.
Sen. Michael Bennet of Colorado voted against the bill in committee, citing inadequate conservation funding for the Colorado River basin’s 40 million residents and the breakdown in party unity. He said he still hopes the historic coalition can be rebuilt.
“I was upset that we’d seen a division between the producer element of the farm bill and the food elements of the farm bill,” Bennet said.
Prospects in the lame-duck session
Outside analysts said the path to passage is narrow. Consultant Mary Kay Thatcher assessed the chances of advancing the measure as a standalone bill during the lame-duck session as “slim to none.” She noted it could ride on a reconciliation bill or another must-pass vehicle such as the National Defense Authorization Act.
Jay Truitt of Policy Perspectives suggested the long-running practice of pairing nutrition and farm supports in a single package may be nearing an end. “This may be our last farm bill,” he said. Thatcher said the most likely outcome is another short-term extension of the current law, which is approaching its eighth year.
Methodology note
This report is based on budget estimates, committee positions, and analyst commentary. All figures and quotations reflect the details provided by officials and participants.