Tropical Storm Moke is forecast to track just south of the Hawaiian Islands this weekend, bringing rounds of heavy rain and gusty winds even without a direct landfall. Tropical Storm Moke will affect the Big Island late Saturday into early Sunday, then spread impacts to the other islands early next week, according to the National Hurricane Center.
Forecasters said Moke held maximum sustained winds of 50 mph at midday Saturday and was expected to strengthen through the day. While the center of circulation is projected to remain offshore, bands of rain and periods of strong wind are expected across windward and southeastern slopes.
Tropical Storm Moke rainfall outlook
The National Hurricane Center warned that the storm’s rainfall “may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides” on the windward and southeast sides of the Big Island, particularly in steep terrain and in areas recently impacted by Hurricane Lala.
The islands, especially the Big Island, endured severe impacts from Hurricane Lala last weekend. A hurricane has not made a direct landfall in Hawaii since Iniki in 1992, but the eye of Category 1 Hurricane Lala passed about 30 miles off the Big Island’s coast, delivering wind gusts over 80 mph and extreme rainfall, with some locations topping 3 feet. Kapalua in Maui County recorded 48 inches over the weekend.
Rainfall totals from Moke are expected to be lower than Lala’s but still hazardous given saturated ground. The Big Island is forecast to receive 5 to 10 inches, with localized amounts up to 15 inches, according to the National Hurricane Center. Eastern Maui could see 3 to 6 inches, and the remaining islands are expected to pick up 1 to 2 inches.
Emergency coordination and climate context
State officials activated Hawaii’s joint information center on Saturday to coordinate public updates through the Hawaii Emergency Management Agency, just days after deactivating the center following Lala.
Forecasters noted that an El Niño pattern is contributing to a more active season by warming eastern Pacific waters, which fuels tropical cyclone development. El Niño also tends to reduce vertical wind shear, the change in wind direction with height, allowing tropical systems to maintain structure rather than weaken.
Residents are advised to monitor official forecasts and heed local guidance as Tropical Storm Moke passes to the south of the state. For communities still recovering from recent damage, including the Hawaii mudslide that leveled homes on the Big Island after Lala, additional heavy rain could worsen impacts.