US early voting has surged past 50.5 million ballots with three days remaining before Tuesday’s midterm elections, according to an analysis by the University of Florida. The total already exceeds the entire early vote count from the 2022 midterms by nearly 5 million, underscoring heightened interest amid a slate of competitive races that will determine control of Congress.
Available data on party registration indicates stronger participation so far among Democrats, with 10.7 million registered Democrats reported to have voted compared with 7.8 million registered Republicans, in states that track such details. Registration does not reflect actual vote choice, but polling has pointed to broad dissatisfaction with President Donald Trump’s performance and unusually close contests in traditionally Republican states.
Republicans are defending a 53-47 Senate majority as the battleground map widens. Democrats are targeting conservative-leaning states including Texas, Alaska and Kansas in hopes of flipping control of the chamber.
Texas is central to those ambitions. University of Florida figures show more than 7 million Texans have already cast early ballots, about 1.5 million more than the early vote at the same point in 2022. In Harris County, which includes Houston, an Associated Press analysis found 862,700 votes had been cast by Wednesday, compared with 564,500 at the same stage in the last midterms.
The county has leaned Democratic in recent cycles, though by varying margins. In 2024, Kamala Harris carried Harris County by nearly 6 points in the presidential race, while Democrat Colin Allred won the county by roughly 11 points over Republican incumbent Senator Ted Cruz in the Senate contest.
This year, Republican Attorney General Ken Paxton faces Democrat James Talarico in a closely watched Senate race, and Republican Governor Greg Abbott is seeking another term against Democrat Gina Hinojosa.
Spending on the Senate contest has soared as Republicans work to hold a state where Democrats have not won statewide in more than 30 years. Trump visited Texas earlier this week, his third trip to the state in a month.
Rising participation is evident in other competitive Senate races as well, according to AP analyses. In South Carolina, which Trump won by nearly 18 points in the 2024 presidential election, early voting is up 83 percent compared with 2022. Kansas has seen a 34 percent increase, Maine is up 44 percent and Michigan is up 32 percent.
US early voting trends reflect high-stakes contests
The midterms will set the balance of power in the House and Senate for the final two years of Trump’s second term. Voters are heading to the polls amid concerns over prices for food and gasoline, the war involving Iran, and allegations of government corruption.
Trump, confronting weak favorability ratings, has crisscrossed several once-safe Republican states to bolster faltering GOP contenders. On the trail, he has frequently commented on candidates’ appearances and played down worries about higher gas prices as secondary to fossil fuel industry profits.
At a Friday rally in Florida, Trump alluded to the intensity of his schedule. “I thought this was it,” he said. “I thought I could relax. Twenty-eight days of this crap in a row is a lot. It’s a lot.”