Chancellor Merz used a trip to Rovaniemi in northern Finland to argue that European priorities outweigh domestic squabbling, yet the turbulence surrounding his leadership followed him north. At the European Arctic Summit, where delegates weighed natural resources, geopolitics, security and climate change, he told reporters he understood the heated debate in Berlin but stressed that the future of Europe was more urgent. He said he is working to persuade colleagues in his party and parliamentary group of that view.
The questions shadowing him are stark. Not even 18 months after taking office in May 2025, political circles in Berlin are asking whether he remains the right person for the job. National support for the federal government has sunk to a record low, and the Christian Democratic Union (CDU) suffered a heavy defeat in Saxony-Anhalt earlier this month.
Why is Chancellor Merz so unpopular?
The CDU faces another test in Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania on September 20, with polls placing the party near 7 percent. Falling below the 5 percent threshold to enter the state parliament cannot be ruled out, pointing to a potential worst-ever state result for the conservatives.
In Saxony-Anhalt, the Alternative for Germany (AfD) took first place. In that state, the Office for the Protection of the Constitution has designated the AfD as a confirmed right-wing extremist organization.
Before entering office, the chancellor pledged to cut AfD support in half. Instead, backing for the CDU has tumbled, prompting scrutiny of whether his leadership is to blame. Critics point to his sometimes abrasive tone and to insufficiently clear explanations of key reforms, including changes to the state pension system.
Senior officials now openly acknowledge a trust problem. Education Minister Karin Prien, a CDU member, said on public television that many people feel the chancellor, and the CDU/CSU more broadly, lack empathy and that this must change.
Commentators say he often appears impatient when discussing difficult measures, such as pension cuts. In July, he warned publicly that attitudes about a four-day workweek and work-life balance could endanger prosperity. Union representatives objected, saying he had effectively accused Germans of laziness.
Privately, coalition partners have also expressed concern. SPD Parliamentary Secretary Dirk Wiese said on Welt TV that nerves seemed frayed in the CDU and urged the party to get back on track and improve cooperation.
Two chancellor candidates: Söder and Wüst
Even if CDU and its Bavarian sister party, the CSU, decided to replace Chancellor Merz, there is no obvious successor. CSU leader Markus Söder, Bavaria’s premier, is frequently mentioned, but his readiness to provoke the CDU limits his support within the wider conservative bloc.
Hendrik Wüst, the CDU premier of North Rhine-Westphalia, is another name in circulation. He has led a coalition with the Greens for more than four years, but has shown little appetite to move to Berlin and is preparing to run for reelection next April in Germany’s most populous state.
Should the governing coalition coalesce around a change, the procedure would be straightforward. After a chancellor resigns, a successor can be elected by a Bundestag majority. If the incumbent does not resign, a constructive vote of no confidence would be required, meaning a challenger such as Wüst or Söder would have to openly oppose him, something seen as unlikely for now.
Amid the speculation, the eight CDU state premiers issued a joint statement on Wednesday affirming support for Chancellor Merz. They said voters can trust that their concerns will be addressed and pledged to contribute alongside the chancellor. The premiers called for unity, arguing Germany needs stability more than ever and that restoring trust depends on listening and political action, not personnel debates.
Signatories included Daniel Günther of Schleswig-Holstein, Boris Rhein of Hesse, Sven Schulze of Saxony-Anhalt, Kai Wegner of Berlin, Michael Kretschmer of Saxony, Gordon Schnieder of Rhineland-Palatinate, Mario Voigt of Thuringia and Wüst of North Rhine-Westphalia.
Pivotal state elections coming up
There is no clear alternative to Chancellor Merz, and he shows no sign of stepping aside. According to accounts circulating in Berlin, he plans to convene the CDU executive committee on Sunday evening, once results from Mecklenburg-Western Pomerania are known. He is expected to ask the 22-member leadership whether they still place their trust in him.
Underscoring the gravity of the moment, the chancellor has canceled a previously scheduled trip to the United Nations General Assembly. Government sources said he would not travel to New York and is needed in Berlin.
This article was originally written in German.