Grain market highs were set across major contracts on Friday after a volatile stretch, while cattle prices continued to weaken, according to analysts who reviewed the week’s moves on Aug. 28.
Randy Martinson, president of Martinson Ag Risk Management, discussed the rally alongside Jamie Dickerman of the Red River Farm Network during the Agweek Market Wrap. They noted it is unusual to see this type of August surge.
Grain market highs driven by geopolitics, demand and weather
Wheat prices firmed on escalating conflict in the Black Sea region. Martinson said Russia has stepped up threats in an area that accounts for about 40% of global wheat supplies.
Soybeans gained on strong demand and record exports, particularly to China. Corn drew support from persistent dryness in the western Corn Belt and northern Plains, along with yield estimates from the Pro Farmer Tour that trailed expectations.
Dickerman added that drought stress is not limited to the United States, with Europe facing an even greater threat to crops.
With some benchmarks now at three-year highs, Dickerman asked how growers should approach unpriced bushels. Martinson said advancing sales made sense at these levels.
“If you have the capacity to sell grain, do it, because we’re at levels we haven’t seen in three years in most of the commodities,” he said. He pointed to roughly 5.35 dollars per bushel for corn and about 12.85 dollars for soybeans as reasonable spots to make sales.
Livestock pressured by import signals and border movement
Livestock futures, particularly cattle, moved lower. Analysts linked the slide to late-week news about plans by President Donald Trump to import cheap ground beef to ease consumer prices.
There was also word that parts of the Mexico and U.S. border reopened to some cattle movement. The crossing had been restricted due to the spread of New World Screwworm, and one port has now resumed operations following progress with sterile fly use to curb the pest.
Martinson said the border development took a back seat to the ground beef plan because of unanswered questions.
“We don’t know where it’s coming from. We don’t know much about it. We do know that the border opened. We do know that about 700 head came across,” he said.
The headlines hit quickly. Feeder cattle have fallen about 68 dollars from their May peak, and cattle prices are down about 35 dollars.
“Fundamentally, the problem is still there for cattle, and that is tight supplies,” Martinson said. “That’s not going to change. Bringing in this ground beef, not going to change that. But short term, it certainly has an impact on the futures market.”
What to watch next for grain market highs
Weather remains a key driver for northern Plains crops in the weeks ahead. Ukraine continues to face intense pressure from Russia, which analysts said could shape the conflict’s trajectory.
A planned meeting between President Trump and President Xi Jinping later in September could also stir markets if it proceeds.