WASHINGTON — Trump Iran rhetoric has veered in recent days, with the president simultaneously downplaying the likelihood of new military action and dismissing the need for renewed negotiations, leaving allies and regional mediators unsure of the path ahead.
In appearances with reporters, broadcast interviews and social media posts since Republicans’ midterm losses, President Donald Trump has stepped back from ordering additional strikes and also moved away from further talks with Iranian negotiators over the eight-month conflict.
The day after the midterms, Trump acknowledged the war and the global economic strains it triggered contributed to Republican setbacks, while insisting the decision to wage it was justified.
Early this week, after meeting Qatar’s prime minister at the White House, he told reporters he saw little chance of needing major new strikes on Iran, saying the war was “militarily effectively over.”
By Thursday, he was again questioning the need to quickly engineer an endgame. He said the United States no longer needs a deal with Tehran and instructed Vice President JD Vance, his former lead negotiator in Iran talks, to pivot to the administration’s domestic anti-fraud initiative.
At the same time, Trump warned that U.S. forces are “locked and loaded” and watching Pickaxe Mountain, a site linked to Iran’s nuclear program, for signs of activity. “If something does not work out, I would not hesitate” to act, he told radio host Hugh Hewitt on Thursday.
These tonal shifts have added to uncertainty for partners already wrestling with the economic fallout of a war launched without prior allied consultation.
Democratic Sen. Cory Booker said Friday that Trump was behaving like “an arsonist” on foreign policy, accusing him of setting the blaze and then seeking to walk away.
Trump Iran rhetoric complicates mediation
The administration’s ambivalent posture is expected to loom over Trump’s trip next week to the Philippines and the Asia-Pacific Economic Cooperation summit in Shenzhen, China, where he will convene a first-of-its-kind three-way meeting with China’s Xi Jinping and Russia’s Vladimir Putin. Iran and nuclear stockpiles are expected to be on the agenda.
The White House declined to comment directly on Trump’s postelection statements. Secretary of State Marco Rubio argued Friday that the administration’s approach is crippling Iran’s economy, reducing the need for further military action. “The economic pain that we are inflicting on that regime is so great that there’s no need for military action because we’ve weakened them so much,” he said in a speech to the Federalist Society.
Qatar, serving as chief mediator, has been seeking an interim arrangement to restore shipping through the Strait of Hormuz, a critical corridor for Persian Gulf oil and gas, while keeping the door open for additional U.S.-Iran discussions.
Two Middle East diplomats familiar with the talks said those efforts were thrown into doubt by Trump’s shifting and at times contradictory comments. They said the process appeared on track after Qatar’s prime minister met Trump, but a Thursday social media post declaring the United States does not need a deal and directing Vance to focus fully on anti-fraud efforts created a sense of limbo.
One diplomat questioned why Vance, initially skeptical of launching the war but ultimately supportive, seemed to be sidelined. According to a person familiar with the matter, Vance had been weighing renewed engagement with senior Iranian officials. Trump, aware of those deliberations, believed Tehran was not acting in good faith, the person said.
The president is increasingly confident he can argue that he achieved his military aims. Yet the Strait of Hormuz remains volatile. The United Nations reported that October saw the most incidents targeting commercial vessels there since February.
With oil shipments through the strait nearing prewar levels, Trump believes Gulf states could negotiate rules for the waterway with Iran, according to the person familiar with his thinking.
Another regional diplomat described peace efforts as in a holding pattern pending clarity from the White House, adding it was unclear whether Trump’s remarks reflected an abandonment of negotiations or postelection posturing after Republicans lost control of Congress.
Tehran has refused to enter talks on its nuclear program absent several core conditions it wants embedded in any ceasefire. Disputes over nuclear activities remain the toughest obstacle, and Trump has insisted they must be addressed in any agreement to end the conflict.
Iran’s deputy U.N. ambassador, Gholamhossein Darzi, told the Security Council on Friday that Iran “has never closed the door to diplomacy,” while warning of an “immediate and decisive response” if the United States or Israel resume bombing.
Rubio said earlier this week that Washington is not opposed to continued mediation. “If there’s a deal to be done, the president will be the first one to be in favor of it. But it’s not going to be a stupid deal. It’s not going to be a bad deal.”
Michael Singh of the Washington Institute for Near East Policy said he expects a prolonged stalemate, with the United States and Iran deadlocked over the Strait of Hormuz and a continuing U.S. naval blockade constraining Iranian crude exports.
Singh said economic pressure remains more attractive to Trump than escalating militarily or making concessions, and he noted the president could reverse course on Vance’s engagement if Iran showed serious interest in talks. “It’s probably the most sensible path to be patient, keep the pressure on, allow the mediators to keep doing their work,” he said, adding that senior officials like the vice president should engage only when the time is right.
Associated Press material contributed to this report. For more on scrutiny of Iran’s nuclear activities, see IAEA presses Iran for access to Isfahan Fuel Enrichment Plant.